{"id":59,"date":"2026-10-19T13:00:34","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T12:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/?p=59"},"modified":"2026-10-19T13:00:34","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T12:00:34","slug":"sut-ve-isabetli-sut-istatistigi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/2026\/10\/19\/sut-ve-isabetli-sut-istatistigi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015eut ve \u0130sabetli \u015eut \u0130statisti\u011fi: Hangisi Daha \u00c7ok \u015eey Anlat\u0131r?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Rakamlar bazen insan\u0131 ikna etmek i\u00e7in yeterince b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr. &#8220;18 \u015fut&#8221; dedi\u011finde kula\u011fa bir h\u00fccum f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 gibi gelir. Ama o 18 \u015futun 14&#8217;\u00fc trib\u00fcne, 3&#8217;\u00fc barajdaysa ve sadece 1&#8217;i kaleciyi yorduysa, tabloya biraz daha so\u011fuk kanl\u0131 bakmak laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n<h2>Toplam \u015fut: g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcl\u00fc ama i\u015fe yarar<\/h2>\n<p>Toplam \u015fut say\u0131s\u0131 bir tak\u0131m\u0131n ne s\u0131kl\u0131kla bitiricili\u011fe kadar ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterir. Bu kendi i\u00e7inde de\u011ferli bir bilgi. Hi\u00e7 \u015fut atamayan bir tak\u0131m gol de atamaz, bu kadar basit. Ancak toplam \u015fut, kaliteyi hi\u00e7 ay\u0131rt etmez. Ceza sahas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan at\u0131lan uzak \u015futlar, s\u0131rf &#8220;bir \u015fey denemek&#8221; i\u00e7in at\u0131lan \u015futlar ve bloke edilen \u015futlar hepsi ayn\u0131 sepete girer.<\/p>\n<p>Baz\u0131 tak\u0131mlar bilin\u00e7li olarak uzaktan \u015fut atmay\u0131 oyunlar\u0131n\u0131n par\u00e7as\u0131 yapar; baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise ceza sahas\u0131na girene kadar sabreder. \u0130kinci tip tak\u0131m daha az \u015fut at\u0131p daha \u00e7ok gol bulabilir.<\/p>\n<h2>\u0130sabetli \u015fut: daha temiz bir sinyal<\/h2>\n<p>\u0130sabetli \u015fut, kaleyi bulan ve kaleci ya da \u00e7izgideki bir savunmac\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan kurtar\u0131lan veya gole d\u00f6nen \u015futtur. Dire\u011fe \u00e7arpan \u015futlar \u00e7o\u011fu istatistik sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131s\u0131nda isabetli say\u0131lmaz, bunu da bilmekte fayda var.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130sabetli \u015fut say\u0131s\u0131, kaleciyi ger\u00e7ekten zorlayan ataklar\u0131n daha iyi bir g\u00f6stergesidir. Yine de bunun da bir kusuru var: Kalecinin kuca\u011f\u0131na giden zay\u0131f bir vuru\u015f ile doksana giden ve kalecinin parmak u\u00e7lar\u0131yla \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 f\u00fcze ayn\u0131 de\u011feri al\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h2>\u0130sabet oran\u0131 ve d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm oran\u0131<\/h2>\n<p>\u0130ki basit oran senin i\u015fini \u00e7ok kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0130sabet oran\u0131:<\/strong> \u0130sabetli \u015fut \/ toplam \u015fut. \u00c7o\u011fu ligde tak\u0131mlar\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 30\u201340 civar\u0131nda seyreder.<\/li>\n<li><strong>D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm oran\u0131:<\/strong> Gol \/ toplam \u015fut. Ortalama genellikle y\u00fczde 10 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r, ligden lige de\u011fi\u015fir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bir tak\u0131m\u0131n d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm oran\u0131 birka\u00e7 hafta boyunca y\u00fczde 20&#8217;nin \u00fczerindeyse, ya ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir bitirici kadrosu vard\u0131r ya da \u015fans y\u00fcz\u00fcne g\u00fclmektedir. Hangisinin oldu\u011funu anlamak i\u00e7in \u015futlar\u0131n nereden at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakman gerekir. \u00c7ok say\u0131da ceza sahas\u0131 i\u00e7i \u015fut, y\u00fcksek d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n<h2>Bahis taraf\u0131nda nas\u0131l kullan\u0131l\u0131r?<\/h2>\n<h3>\u0130sabetli \u015fut pazarlar\u0131<\/h3>\n<p>Baz\u0131 platformlar &#8220;tak\u0131m\u0131n isabetli \u015fut say\u0131s\u0131&#8221; veya &#8220;oyuncu isabetli \u015fut&#8221; gibi \u00f6zel pazarlar sunar. Bu pazarlarda tak\u0131m\u0131n ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 rakibin yedi\u011fi isabetli \u015fut ortalamas\u0131yla birlikte de\u011ferlendirmek mant\u0131kl\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin ev sahibi ma\u00e7 ba\u015f\u0131 5,2 isabetli \u015fut \u00e7ekiyor, deplasman tak\u0131m\u0131 ise deplasmanda ma\u00e7 ba\u015f\u0131 4,8 isabetli \u015fut yiyorsa, 4,5 \u00fcst \u00e7izgisi makul bir ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131 olabilir. Oran o \u00e7izginin olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 iyi yans\u0131t\u0131yorsa ortada bir avantaj yoktur; fark b\u00fcy\u00fckse incelemeye de\u011fer.<\/p>\n<h3>Gol pazarlar\u0131nda destekleyici veri<\/h3>\n<p>Alt\/\u00fcst bahislerinde iki tak\u0131m\u0131n birlikte \u00fcretti\u011fi isabetli \u015fut say\u0131s\u0131 iyi bir yard\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6stergedir. Ma\u00e7 ba\u015f\u0131 toplam 9\u201310 isabetli \u015fut \u00fcreten e\u015fle\u015fmelerle 5\u20136 isabetli \u015fut \u00fcreten e\u015fle\u015fmeler aras\u0131nda gol beklentisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ciddi fark vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<h2>K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir senaryo<\/h2>\n<p>\u0130ki tak\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnelim. Kuzeyspor son alt\u0131 ma\u00e7ta ma\u00e7 ba\u015f\u0131 16 \u015fut, 4 isabetli \u015fut ortalamas\u0131 tutturmu\u015f. G\u00fcneyspor ise ma\u00e7 ba\u015f\u0131 10 \u015fut, 5 isabetli \u015fut. \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta Kuzeyspor daha h\u00fccumcu. Ama isabet oran\u0131na bak\u0131nca Kuzeyspor y\u00fczde 25, G\u00fcneyspor y\u00fczde 50. G\u00fcneyspor daha az deniyor ama denedi\u011finde kaleciyi daha \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Bu iki tak\u0131m kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sadece toplam \u015futa bakan biri Kuzeyspor&#8217;u fazla, G\u00fcneyspor&#8217;u eksik de\u011ferlendirebilir.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u015eut say\u0131s\u0131 niyeti, isabetli \u015fut tehlikeyi, gol ise biraz da \u015fans\u0131 anlat\u0131r.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2>\u015eutun nereden at\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 neden bu kadar \u00f6nemli?<\/h2>\n<p>\u015eut haritas\u0131, rakamlardan daha \u00e7ok \u015fey anlat\u0131r. \u00c7o\u011fu istatistik sitesi ma\u00e7 sonras\u0131 \u015futlar\u0131n sahadaki konumunu g\u00f6steren bir harita yay\u0131nlar. Bu haritaya bir g\u00f6z att\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, tak\u0131m\u0131n oyun anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 neredeyse an\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcrs\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Alt\u0131 pas i\u00e7i ve penalt\u0131 noktas\u0131 \u00e7evresi:<\/strong> Gol ihtimalinin en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu b\u00f6lge. Buradan d\u00fczenli \u015fut bulan tak\u0131m, gol bulmakta zorlansa bile genelde pozisyon \u00fcretmeye devam eder.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ceza sahas\u0131 kenar\u0131:<\/strong> Orta d\u00fczey tehlike. \u0130yi bir bitiricinin elinde ciddi silah olabilir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Ceza sahas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131:<\/strong> D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 denemeler. \u00c7ok fazla \u015fut buradan geliyorsa, tak\u0131m muhtemelen savunmay\u0131 a\u00e7makta zorlan\u0131yor demektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bir tak\u0131m\u0131n \u015futlar\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131 ceza sahas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan geliyorsa, toplam \u015fut say\u0131s\u0131 ne kadar y\u00fcksek olursa olsun, gol beklentisine temkinli yakla\u015fmak gerekir. Tersine, az ama hep ceza sahas\u0131 i\u00e7inden \u015fut atan bir tak\u0131m, rakamlarda s\u00f6n\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de rakibi i\u00e7in ciddi bir tehdittir.<\/p>\n<h2>Canl\u0131 izlerken pratik bir kural<\/h2>\n<p>Canl\u0131 bahiste ekrana bakarken toplam \u015fut say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fil, son 15 dakikadaki isabetli \u015fut say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 izlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f. Bir tak\u0131m 15 dakikada 3 isabetli \u015fut \u00e7ektiyse kaleci ger\u00e7ekten zorlan\u0131yor demektir. 6 \u015fut \u00e7ekip hi\u00e7birini \u00e7er\u00e7eveye g\u00f6nderemediyse, o bask\u0131n\u0131n gol \u00fcretme ihtimali san\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar y\u00fcksek olmayabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Onwin sitesinde sunulan istatistik ve \u00f6zel pazarlar ma\u00e7tan ma\u00e7a farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterebilir; hangi se\u00e7eneklerin a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu sitenin kendisinden kontrol etmen en do\u011frusu. Her durumda, bahsi bir analiz oyunu olarak g\u00f6r, kazan\u00e7 garantisi olarak de\u011fil. \u00d6nceden belirledi\u011fin b\u00fct\u00e7eyi a\u015fma ve kaybetti\u011fin bir bahsin ard\u0131ndan hemen yenisine atlama.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On sekiz \u015fut atan tak\u0131m neden gol bulamaz? \u015eut say\u0131s\u0131 ile isabetli \u015fut aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131 ve bunun bahis analizine etkisini konu\u015fuyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":237,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[104],"tags":[160,107,159],"class_list":["post-59","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-strateji-ve-analiz","tag-isabetli-sut","tag-mac-analizi","tag-sut-istatistigi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":359,"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59\/revisions\/359"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/237"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.onwingirisihakkinda.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}